Wednesday, July 13, 2016

Cool Cartoon: Bernie Endorsing Hillary

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Correlation vs Causation - Nonsense Political Statistics

Credits: Thank You Neilosoftware.com
Hi folks,

I would like to teach you a lesson regarding correlation and causation. 

I was visiting a blog that had some data that was like this. These are not exact numbers but will capture the spirit.

Pres A: 200 intentional police deaths
Pres Z: 80 intentional police deaths
Pres Y: 70 intentional police deaths
Pres W: 100 intentional police deaths
Obama: 62 intentional police deaths 

There conclusion was like this: The Republicans are making up nonsense about Obama being responsible for police deaths because police deaths are at an all time low under Obama. This could even convince some people that Obama was actually a benefit to police and that overall despite the shootings police are doing fine.

However, it is important to realize correlation vs causation.


Scenario A: If ice cream sales decrease and drowning decreases. Therefore not eating ice cream prevents drowning. This is not the case: Ice cream sales drop as the summer ends and swimming drops as well. (Who eats ice cream and swims in December ? ). It's the summer time not ice cream! Correlation does not imply causation.



This is where my point comes in. It is likely that Obama's lax efforts to confront the issue of police mistreatment and his failure to address radical movements properly have resulted in catastrophic police deaths. But they say look at the data, under Obama it's at an all time low.

However, it is possible that there is a 3rd party that is lowering police deaths not Obama. For instance, the media's harsh criticism of cops might have made them relax and not get involved in dangerous scenarios. This had made them get less involved and thus less intentional deaths. I am a strong believer in this theory that I created.


In conclusion, analyze claims by people who use statistics to throw you off tracks that lead to the truth.